Hiroshima G7 Summit 2023 – Analysis of the Communiqué

The Group of Seven (G7) Summit was held from May 19 to 21, 2023, in Hiroshima, with Japan as the presidency. Amid the backdrop of an ongoing war that has continued for more than a year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Communiqué included declarations on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, the global economy, climate, energy, gender, and regional affairs, among other things.

Below we summarize the points of shared understanding on climate change at the G7 Summit in 2023 and the leadership role of Japan serving this time as the Presidency.

Ⅰ.　Key points of Communiqué

Building on the G7 Climate, Energy and Environment Ministers’ Communiqué (English, Japanese) from their meeting in Sapporo on April 15 and 16, the G7 Hiroshima Leaders’ Communiqué (English, Japanese) expressed common positions on the following key points.

1. 60% GHG reduction by 2035 to limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C

The Communiqué reiterates the commitment to limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C, and upholds the leaders’ commitment to the Paris Agreement. In the context of impacts on global energy markets and energy supply chains driven by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, the Communiqué holds steady with the goal of net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 at the latest, and emphasizes the urgency of reducing global GHG emissions by around 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 relative to the 2019 level, in light of the latest findings of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

2. Reaffirmation of commitment to achieving a “fully or predominantly” decarbonized power sector by 2035, and accelerating the phase-out of coal power

Regarding the power sector, the Communiqué recalls the 2022 G7 Leaders’ Communiqué and reaffirms their commitment to a fully or predominantly decarbonized power sector by 2035 and to prioritizing concrete and timely steps towards accelerating the phase-out of domestic unabated coal power generation in a manner consistent with the 1.5°C goal, and urges others to join the effort.

3. Commitment to accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuels

Leaders underline their commitment to accelerate the phase-out of unabated fossil fuels so as to achieve net zero in energy systems by 2050 at the latest in line with the trajectories required to limit global average temperatures to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, and called on others to do the same.

The leaders also “highlight” that they ended new direct public support for the international unabated fossil fuel energy sector in 2022, except in limited circumstances.

4. Endorsement of publicly supported investment in the gas sector as an appropriate temporary response

The Communiqué stresses the role of increased deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in addressing the global impact of Russia’s war on people’s lives. It states that in the exceptional circumstance of accelerating the phase out of dependency on Russian energy, publicly supported investment in the gas sector can be appropriate as a temporary response if implemented in a manner consistent with climate objectives without creating lock-in effects.

5. Contribution to expanding renewable energy globally: Increase offshore wind capacity by 150 GW, solar PV to over 1 TW

As for renewable energy, the leaders acknowledge the need to significantly accelerate the deployment of renewable energies and the development and deployment of next-generation technologies, and state that the G7 contributes to expanding renewable energy globally and bringing down costs, including through a collective increase in offshore wind capacity of 150 GW by 2030 and a collective increase of solar PV to more than 1 TW by 2030 (estimated through each country’s existing targets or policy measures).

6. Ammonia and hydrogen to be used in “hard-to-abate sectors” if this can “be aligned with a 1.5°C pathway”

The Communiqué states that low-carbon and renewable hydrogen and its derivatives such as ammonia should be developed and used, if this can be aligned with a 1.5 °C pathway, where they are impactful as effective emission reduction tools to advance decarbonization across sectors and industries, notably in hard-to-abate sectors in industry and transportation, while avoiding N2O as a GHG and NOx as air pollutant.

The Communiqué also notes that some countries are exploring the use of low-carbon and renewable hydrogen and its derivatives in the power sector to work towards zero-emission thermal power generation if this can be aligned with a 1.5°C pathway and the collective goal for a fully or predominantly decarbonized power sector by 2035.

7. Noting the opportunity to collectively reduce CO₂ emissions from G7 vehicle stock by at least 50% by 2035

The leaders state that they are committed to the goal of achieving net-zero emissions in the road sector by 2050 and note the opportunity to collectively reduce by at least 50 percent CO2 emissions from G7 vehicle stock by 2035 or earlier relative to the level in 2000 as a halfway point to achieving net zero and to track the progress on a yearly basis.

The Communiqué notes the opportunities to contribute to a highly decarbonized road sector, including progressing towards a share of over 50 percent of zero emission light duty vehicles (LDVs) sold globally by 2030, through policies to achieve 100 percent or the overwhelming penetration of sales of LDVs as zero emission vehicles (ZEV) by 2035 and beyond, and to achieve 100 percent electrified vehicles in new passenger car sales by 2035.

Ⅱ.　Japan’s Leadership and Stance

1. Japan’s leadership and stance

Although climate change was certainly one of the themes of the Hiroshima leaders’ summit, it was generally not a high priority for Japan as a host country. The Japanese government emphasized that there are “various pathways” according to each country’s energy situation, and failed to put an emphasis on building G7 consensus regarding shared climate goals and commitments. As a result, the Leaders’ Communiqué missed the opportunity to reinforce the outcomes of the Climate, Energy and Environment Ministers’ Communiqué (April). In many respects, it simply adhered to the wording of last year’s G7 Summit in Elmau.

In particular, the following positions of the Japanese government hindered more ambitious consensus-building.

• Opposed to “full decarbonization of the power sector by 2035” and “phase-out of coal power”

In its Sixth Strategic Energy Plan, the Japanese government has set targets for the power mix in 2030, with thermal power generation at 41% (including coal at 19%). Japan has formulated no plan yet for 2035. Since the Japanese government has not yet adopted any policy for a coal phase-out or related policies for 2035, it was not in a position as the G7 presidency to support stronger language on decarbonization in the power sector by 2035 or the phase-out of coal power by 2030. As a result, no progress was made on any of these points in the Communiqué. According to related media reports (Mainichi Shimbun, in Japanese), any clear mention about the timing of a coal phase-out was curtailed due to strong opposition from the Japanese government.

• Non-support for 100% EV new car sales

The Japanese government has set a target of 100% electric vehicle sales by 2035, which includes plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHVs) and hybrid vehicles (HVs), based on the view that a wide range of technology choices should be pursued. However, this differs from other countries’ policies about new vehicle sales being 100% electric vehicles (EVs).

Reflecting Japan’s position, the G7 Communiqué states that “we are committed to the goal of achieving net-zero emissions in the road sector by 2050,” but does not specify a path to achieve net zero.

The Communiqué gives examples of options such as “policies to achieve 100 percent or the overwhelming penetration of sales of LDVs as zero emission vehicles (ZEV) by 2035 and beyond,” and “to achieve 100 percent electrified vehicles in new passenger car sales by 2035.” However, there is no overall G7 commitment, only vague wording that “we highlight the various actions that each of us is taking to decarbonize our vehicle fleet,” and “opportunities that these policies offer to contribute to … a share of over 50% of zero emission LDVs sold globally by 2030.”

2. Japanese government’s interpretation of the Communiqué

The government’s Japanese language summaries of the G7 Summit results reveal certain idiosyncrasies in terms of emphasis and interpretation.

• Summary of main points

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ outline (in Japanese, in bullet points) of the G7 Leaders’ Communiqué omits anything about highlighting “the increased urgency to reduce global GHG emissions by around … 60% by 2035” in light of the latest IPCC Assessment Report. Likewise, the outline omits mention of targets for renewable energy (this is the first time they were included in a G7 Communiqué ). The outline does not mention them at all. The outline makes no mention of the “commitment to decarbonization in the electricity sector by 2035” or “priority of accelerating the coal-fired phase-out.” On those points, Japan has taken an opposing stance and made no progress. Nor does the outline mention that this year’s reaffirmed those points from last year’s Communiqué. Furthermore, the outline only mentions that investment in gas “can be appropriate” but omits the qualified phrase “as a temporary response” and “if implemented in a manner consistent with our climate objectives without creating lock-in effects.”

• Use of hydrogen and ammonia in the power sector

Regarding the use of ammonia and hydrogen, which the Japanese government is promoting in the power sector, here is an excerpt of what a summary about the G7 Climate, Energy and Environment Ministers’ Communiqué says (Summary by Ministry of the Environment (in Japanese):

“Clearly states that hydrogen and ammonia will contribute to decarbonization in various sectors and industries, as well as to ‘zero-emission thermal power generation’ in the power sector.”

Actually, the original Communiqué in English notes that “some countries” are exploring the use of hydrogen and ammonia in the power sector but qualifies this statement with “if this can be aligned with a 1.5°C pathway and our collective goal for a fully or predominantly decarbonized power sector by 2035.” Thus, by no means did the English version of the Communiqué confirm any G7 consensus that hydrogen and ammonia in the power sector will contribute to decarbonization. It would be difficult to interpret the actual Communiqué to have stated that hydrogen and ammonia “contribute to decarbonization” of the power sector.

Ⅲ. What the G7 Hiroshima Summit revealed

Many observers feel that the G7 Hiroshima Summit failed to include the strong G7 commitment the world wanted to see regarding the increasingly urgent issue of climate change. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hardly ever expressed any willingness to address climate change, and the Leaders’ Communiqué went no further than what had been covered at the Environment Ministers’ Meeting the previous month.

The Japanese government was more interested in promoting Japan’s GX, which has attracted considerable interest domestically, and ensuring that the Communiqué included things like the use of hydrogen and ammonia in the power sector, CCU and carbon recycling technologies, and nuclear power. Completely absent was any willingness to further strengthen G7 commitments to things like a phase-out of coal power or achieving 100% EVs in new vehicle sales — which other countries were trying to promote.

Meanwhile, the Communiqué repeatedly mentions the need to stay on a 1.5°C pathway and emphasizes that things like the use of hydrogen and ammonia, the phase-out of coal power, and investment in gas are consistent with the 1.5°C goal. Substantial emission reductions are needed by 2030 to realize the 1.5°C goal. In that light, not many options remain among the so-called “various pathways,” so priority must be given to the selection of those technologies that can reliably produce the needed reductions.

When it comes to decarbonizing their domestic power sectors, implementing measures, and raising their levels of ambition, G7 countries including Japan are called upon to take leading actions while maintaining consistency with a 1.5°C warming limit, as written in the G7 Communiqué.

Written by Kimiko Hirata and Atsuko Kawaguchi